The Social Equality and Economic Development in Iraq: A Socio-Economic Scenario Analysis

Abstract

The paper aims to explore and track the paths of social justice and economic development in Iraq considering the fluctuations in oil prices after 2003. The research relies on the quantitative scenario analysis approach to demonstrate the impact of the path of economic development in Iraq considering the fluctuations in oil prices after 2003. The results show the failure of economic policies in developing non-oil activities to achieve social justice due to the need for a diversified production base. There are no consistent programs in the economic field aimed at diversifying the production base that is a priority for implementation under the strategies prepared by the government. The abundance of financial resources that Iraq obtained after 2003 did not work to bring about major leaps and new transformations in the structure of the Iraqi economy in a way that achieves diversity in the production base and limits the economy's dependence on oil resources. In this research, we propose three scenarios for the future of the Iraqi economy and economic development in Iraq for the period from 2023-2030 that can achieve social justice and serve Iraq's economic policies in drawing paths for economic and social development. The research addresses an important social and economic problem for economic policymakers in Iraq using the scenario approach.